WORLD NEWS
As the United States approaches the election on November 5, TV networks are gearing up for a potential results vacuum that could stretch for weeks. The uncertainty comes after the complex electoral system and differing voting procedures in key swing states, particularly Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which do not begin counting early votes until Election Day.
In 2020, it took four tense days to confirm President Joe Biden’s victory, and this year experts predict similar delays as networks rely on state-by-state projections to determine which candidate—former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris—will secure the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Joe Lenski, executive vice president of Edison Research, emphasizes the challenges of projecting results in seven highly competitive swing states, where the data may not be sufficient until late on election night or even days afterward. The pressure will be on network decision desks, comprising statisticians and analysts, to provide accurate estimates amid the high stakes of election coverage.
Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor and former NBC decision desk member, notes the critical balance networks must strike between speed and accuracy, highlighting past mistakes such as Fox News’ early call for Biden in Arizona in 2020 and the infamous 2000 Florida call for Al Gore.
To navigate the potential chaos, media organizations are implementing advanced analytics, combining exit polls and surveys of early voters to ensure informed reporting. Amidst a wave of disinformation regarding electoral fraud, channels will have to maintain viewer engagement while upholding transparency and accuracy.
Election lawyer Ben Ginsberg warns of the potential for a “red mirage,” where early Republican leads may diminish as mail-in ballots, often favored by Democrats, are counted. Networks like CNN and NBC News are preparing extensive data presentations, with CNN using its “magic wall” to visually showcase trends.
As anticipation builds, experts advise against premature victory declarations, urging voters to remain patient as the counting process unfolds