TRADE & ECONOMY

Pakistan to Consult IMF on Finalizing Federal Budget for FY 2025-26

Pakistan to consult IMF from May 14-22 on finalizing the FY 2025-26 budget. GDP target set at Rs 130,000 billion & FBR revenue target at Rs 14,200 billion. Discussions may influence economic policies & reforms.
2025-05-05
Pakistan to Consult IMF on Finalizing Federal Budget for FY 2025-26

The Government of Pakistan has decided to hold consultations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to finalize the federal budget for the fiscal year 2025-26. According to sources, the IMF delegation will visit Pakistan from May 14 to May 22, where it will work with the Ministry of Finance and other economic institutions to finalize budget proposals.

GDP and Revenue Targets for FY 2025-26

The target for gross domestic product (GDP) for the next fiscal year has been proposed to be set at Rs 130,000 billion. The revenue target for the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has been proposed at Rs 14,200 billion, which is expected to be 11 percent of the GDP.

The tax-to-GDP ratio for the current fiscal year is estimated to be 10.6 percent. However, the government is targeting an increase in this ratio to 11 percent for the coming fiscal year. In addition, the FBR has been assigned a revenue target of over Rs 950 billion for May 2025.

Tax Collection and Revenue Shortfalls

The FBR’s total tax collection is likely to be Rs 11,800 billion by the end of the current fiscal year. However, Rs 500 billion is expected to be recovered from pending tax cases. If the recovery from these cases does not materialize, the revised revenue target of Rs 12,334 billion will not be met, resulting in a revenue shortfall of up to Rs 500 billion.

The FBR’s initial target was Rs 12,970 billion, but with the current situation, there is a possibility of a shortfall of Rs 1,170 billion by the end of the fiscal year.

Consultations with IMF and Potential Economic Reforms

According to sources, the FBR has already shared the proposed targets and revenue estimates with the IMF. The finalization of the budget will occur in consultation with the IMF, and the negotiations may influence Pakistan’s future economic policies, including subsidy reforms, the expansion of the tax net, and possibly new conditions set by the IMF.

These consultations and potential agreements are expected to have a significant impact on the government’s economic decisions in the coming months.