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Pollsters Scramble to Explain Why Trump Support Continues to Be Undercounted in Pre-Election Surveys
Despite polls showing Trump trailing Kamala Harris, he ultimately led by 2 points. Pollsters now struggle to understand why Trump support is repeatedly underestimated.
ND
by News Desk
2024-11-20
Pollsters Scramble to Explain Why Trump Support Continues to Be Undercounted in Pre-Election Surveys

WASHINGTON – Following Donald Trump’s victory in this month’s presidential election, pollsters are grappling with why their surveys consistently underestimated his support among American voters.

Polls conducted before the November 5 vote had shown Trump trailing Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris by just 1 percentage point, according to the 538 polling average. However, with vote tallies nearing finalization, Trump ultimately led Harris by 2 percentage points, securing 50% of the vote to Harris's 48%. This 3-point error mirrors polling discrepancies in previous elections, where surveys also underestimated Trump’s support—by 4 points in 2020 and 2 points in 2016.

While these variances fall within the normal margin of error for most polls, they have sparked concerns among polling experts. Charles Franklin, a pollster at Marquette Law School in Milwaukee, noted that these consistent undershoots of Trump’s support could suggest challenges in reaching his voter base. This problem could be due to Trump supporters being less responsive to surveys, leading to their views being underrepresented in national opinion polls.

As polling organizations analyze their results, questions persist about the accuracy of pre-election surveys and the difficulty of gauging the strength of Trump’s voter base in a tightly divided electorate. Experts like Franklin are now part of a task force aimed at investigating the issue and improving the precision of future polling efforts.
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